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Amid the widespread uncertainty regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning marked its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another state and capture its head of state – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.