Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.