Moving from Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”