War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

The nation is holding an election in a vote widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of free speech, assembly or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".